A period of more or less balanced budgets followed. The 1861-1865 Civil war, the 1898 Spanish war, the 1899-1902 Philippine war, combined with the 1890 depression, account for the deficit of about $1 billion accumulated in the years 1850-1900. The 1950 milestone indicates the point where federal budget deficit ceased to be the result of a combination of circumstances such as war engagements or economic depressions, to become a structural phenomenon inherent to the federal budgeting behavior.Įarlier deficits were related to the rise of war expenses, or to receipt crunches caused by economic downturns or depression. However, from 1950 onwards, we count an overwhelming 61 (87%) deficit years, against only 9 (13%) surplus years. Looking at how deficits and surpluses are distributed along the time line, one finds that until 1949, the two are rather balanced: there are 18 (45%) surplus periods, and 22 (55%) deficit periods. They took both a steeper slope and split paths around 1950. In the chart, the red line clearly subdues the blue one.Ī closer view reveals that the two budget lines hovered very close to each other until well into the 20th century. Over the 119 years since 1901, including the government estimates extending through 2019, the federal budget is 89 times (75% of the time) on the red (deficit), and only 30 times (25%) on the black (surplus). The US federal government is haunted by an irresistible attraction to overspending. US federal budget receipts and outlays : Actual and estimates 1789-2019 | Scenario 2025 |
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